Tesla Stock Analysis Dashboard

Comprehensive analysis of Tesla's financial performance, market position, and investment outlook

$284.65
52W Range: $138.80 - $488.54

Executive Summary

Tesla maintains a dominant position in the EV market with significant technological advantages, strong brand recognition, and expanding manufacturing capacity. While the company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth (42.3% CAGR over 5 years) and achieved consistent profitability, our discounted cash flow analysis suggests the current stock price exceeds our calculated intrinsic values across multiple scenarios.

Investment Recommendations

Growth Hold/Selective Buy
Value Avoid
Income Avoid
Speculative Selective Buy/Trade
ESG Buy

Financial Performance

Revenue CAGR (5Y) 42.3%
Gross Margin (2023) 19.0%
Operating Margin (2023) 9.6%
Net Margin (2023) 8.2%

Valuation Analysis

P/E Ratio 80.2x (Industry: 10.3x)
P/S Ratio 9.3x (Industry: 0.8x)
EV/EBITDA 44.5x (Industry: 8.2x)

Technical Analysis

RSI (14) 59.31 Neutral
MACD 26.02 Bullish
Key Support $175.79
Key Resistance $381.59

Market Position

EV Market Share 18.4% Market Leader
Market Cap $900.5B (Toyota: $285.6B)
Annual Deliveries 1.81M

SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Brand Strength & Customer Loyalty
  • Technology Leadership
  • Manufacturing Scale & Efficiency
  • Supercharger Network
  • Software & OTA Updates
  • Energy Business Integration
  • Direct Sales Model

Weaknesses

  • Premium Pricing
  • Limited Model Range
  • Service Network Limitations
  • Quality Control Issues
  • Regulatory Challenges
  • Executive Dependency
  • Margin Pressure

Opportunities

  • Global EV Market Growth
  • Autonomous Driving Monetization
  • Energy Business Expansion
  • New Markets & Models
  • AI & Robotics
  • Battery Technology Advancements
  • Regulatory Tailwinds

Threats

  • Intensifying Competition
  • Chinese Market Challenges
  • Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
  • Macroeconomic Headwinds
  • Technological Disruption
  • Regulatory Risks
  • Valuation Expectations

Price Targets & Scenarios

Bull Case (25%)

$500 +75.7%

FSD achieves Level 4/5 autonomy, energy business grows to 15-20% of revenue, margins recover above 25%

Base Case (50%)

$250 -12.2%

Moderate growth in deliveries (15-20% annually), gradual FSD improvements, margins stabilize at lower levels

Bear Case (25%)

$100 -64.9%

Significant slowdown in delivery growth, FSD development stalls, margins compress due to competition

Investment Conclusion

Tesla represents a unique investment opportunity at the intersection of automotive, technology, and energy sectors. The company's innovative approach, brand strength, and leadership in the growing EV market position it for potential long-term success. However, the current valuation appears to price in much of this potential, creating a challenging risk-reward profile for new investors.

Our analysis suggests a cautious approach to Tesla as an investment at current levels. For those already holding the stock, maintaining positions with a long-term perspective may be appropriate given the company's growth potential. New investors should consider selective buying on significant pullbacks rather than aggressive accumulation at current prices.

Key Factors to Monitor

  1. Vehicle delivery growth rates and production capacity expansion
  2. Gross and operating margin trends
  3. Progress on Full Self-Driving technology and regulatory developments
  4. New model introductions and production ramps
  5. Competitive dynamics in key markets, particularly China and Europe